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Roles of Initial Ocean Surface and Subsurface States on Successfully Predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an Intermediate Coupled Model : Volume 11, Issue 1 (06/02/2015)

By Zheng, F.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004020247
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 8
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Roles of Initial Ocean Surface and Subsurface States on Successfully Predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an Intermediate Coupled Model : Volume 11, Issue 1 (06/02/2015)  
Author: Zheng, F.
Volume: Vol. 11, Issue 1
Language: English
Subject: Science, Ocean, Science
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Zhu, J., & Zheng, F. (2015). Roles of Initial Ocean Surface and Subsurface States on Successfully Predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an Intermediate Coupled Model : Volume 11, Issue 1 (06/02/2015). Retrieved from

Description: International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China. The 2006–2007 El Niño event, an unusually weak event, was predicted by most models only after the warming in the eastern Pacific had commenced. In this study, on the basis of an El Niño prediction system, roles of the initial ocean surface and subsurface states on predicting the 2006–2007 El Niño event are investigated to determine conditions favorable for predicting El Niño growth and are isolated in three sets of hindcast experiments. The hindcast is initialized through assimilation of only the sea surface temperature (SST) observations to optimize the initial surface condition, only the sea level (SL) data to update the initial subsurface state, or both the SST and SL data. Results highlight that the hindcasts with three different initial states can all successfully predict the 2006–2007 El Niño event 1 year in advance and that the hindcast initialized by both the SST and SL data performs best. A comparison between the various sets of hindcast results further demonstrates that successful prediction is more significantly affected by the initial subsurface state than by the initial surface condition. The accurate initial surface state can trigger the easier prediction of the 2006–2007 El Niño, whereas a more reasonable initial subsurface state can contribute to improving the prediction in the growth of the warm event.

Roles of initial ocean surface and subsurface states on successfully predicting 2006–2007 El Niño with an intermediate coupled model

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